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Updated population projections and estimates

Alberta population estimates

A population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population at a particular point in time.

Alberta's population growth gathers momentum in the second quarter

• Alberta added 40,253 residents in the second quarter of 2022. As of July 1, 2022, Alberta’s population was 4,543,111.
• In the second quarter, accelerating interprovincial migration gains and continued strength in immigration supported population growth.
  • Net interprovincial migration was positive for the fourth consecutive quarter, registering the largest quarterly net gains since 2014.
  • For the second consecutive quarter, Alberta led the country in interprovincial gains.
• Immigrant landings continued to bolster population growth as national admissions set another record and Alberta’s share ticked up. Alberta’s population grew by 0.89% in the second quarter.
  • International net migration was the biggest driver of growth in the second quarter, contributing 0.56%. Net interprovincial migration and natural increase contributed 0.22% and 0.12%, respectively.
• Alberta’s annual population growth was 2.2%, a dramatic turnaround from 2021-22 growth of 0.6% and the highest level since 2013-14.

Alberta components of population change, 2nd quarter of 2022

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Population of provinces and territories as of July 1, 2022 and growth rates since July 1, 2021

Population of provinces and territories as of July 1, 2022 and growth rates since July 1, 2021

Natural increase

• Natural increase (births minus deaths) resulted in a population gain of 5,370 people.
  • ​There were 13,017 births and 7,647 deaths in the second quarter of 2022.
• Alberta continued to have the highest natural growth rate of the provinces at 0.12%. Furthermore, Alberta had the youngest average age as well as lowest proportion of people aged 65 and over.

International migration

• International migration added 25,026 new residents in the second quarter.
• Alberta received 14,229 immigrants, over twice the level in the same quarter last year.
  • In the second quarter, Canada welcomed 118,114 immigrants. This was the highest second quarter level since 1971 (when the current data series began). The 2022-2024 Immigration Levels Plan for Canada sets a target of 431,645 permanent residents for the calendar year of 2022.
• Alberta’s share of national immigration picked up for the fourth consecutive quarter, posting a share of 12.0% in the second quarter. This was 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
• Large net inflows of non-permanent residents (11,539) added to international migration. At the national level, Canada welcomed a net of 157,310 NPRs, which was the highest level seen in the recorded data series (since 1972).

Interprovincial migration

• Alberta registered the highest net inflow of interprovincial migrants of the country. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of substantial net interprovincial in-flows. On a net basis, Alberta gained the most interprovincial migrants from Ontario (6,281), Manitoba (1,305), B.C. (1,090) and Saskatchewan (1,057).

Net population movement for Alberta (April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022)

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Interprovincial migration statistics (April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022)

Interprovincial Migration Statistics, April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022

PDF reports: Annual and quarterly population reports archive

• 2020-21 Annual Population Report (September 29, 2021)

These past publications detail Alberta population estimates between 2002 and 2019.

• 2009 Second Quarter – 2019 Second Quarter
• 2002 First Quarter – 2009 First Quarter

Data tables (Excel format)

Population estimates and components of growth

• Population estimates and components of growth (estimates and components of growth files updated September 28, 2022)
• Municipal (Census Subdivision) Population Estimates (2016 - 2021) (file updated March 17, 2022)

Components of migration, mobility and births and deaths

• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated October 7, 2020)
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated September 29, 2020)

Animated population estimates pyramid (age and sex)

See the animated pyramid population estimates (age and sex) for 1921 to 2020 (updated October 7, 2020).

Shifts in the age distribution result from changes in fertility, mortality and migration for specific age groups.

The relative size of the major cohorts in Alberta’s population is largely due to the differences in the size of the cohort at birth. For instance:

• an increase in fertility rates after World War II caused the large Baby Boom cohort
  (born 1946–1965)
• the decline in fertility rates right after the Baby Boom years led to the Baby Bust cohort
  (born 1965–1974)
• the Boomer cohort’s children also stand out in the pyramid as the Echo generation
  (born 1975–1995)

Alberta population projections

Population projections give a picture of what the future population may be like. Population growth projections for Alberta and its sub-regions use 3 scenarios:

• medium-growth (or reference)
• high-growth
• low-growth

Alberta population projections infographic – 2022 to 2046:

• Download infographic (PDF, 237 KB) (July 5, 2022)
• See below for a summary.

Highlights: 2022-46 medium (reference) scenario

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to:

• reach over 6.4 million people, an increase of almost 2.0 million people from 2021
• become older, with an average age of 41.7 years, up from 38.9 years in 2021
• become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 55% of the expected growth over the projection period
• become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor; 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region by 2046

Chart: Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2046

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

PDF report and infographic: Alberta population projections

The following are for 2022 to 2046 and were released on July 5, 2022:

• Methodology and Assumptions (PDF, 848 KB)
  • Archive of previous reports
• ​Infographic (PDF, 237 KB) 
  • ​Archive of previous infographics

Data tables: Alberta population projections

The following files are for 2022 to 2046 and were released on July 5, 2022.

Population projections data tables – Alberta and Census Divisions

• Population projections data tables – Alberta and Census Divisions (Excel and CSV format)

Population projections data tables – Economic Divisions

• These are available upon request. Contact Jennifer Hansen ([email protected]) for assistance.

Animated population projection pyramids (age and sex)

Animated population pyramids are available below for Alberta.

Age and sex are presented as percentages of the total population for the periods 1996 – 2021 (estimated) and 2022 – 2046 (projected) under 3 different population growth assumptions:

• medium growth (reference scenario as most-likely case based on historical trends)
• high growth
• low growth

The population projection pyramids below are for 1996 to 2046 and were released on July 5, 2022.

Chart: Alberta population by age and sex (thousands), 2021 and 2046

View the pyramid animation for the medium growth scenario population projections (age and sex) to 2046. The image below shows the population for 2021 and 2046.

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Animated population projection pyramids for Alberta

• Alberta – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Alberta – all growth assumptions (medium, high and low growth)

Animated population projection pyramids for Census Divisions and Economic Regions

• These are available upon request. Contact Jennifer Hansen ([email protected]) for assistance.

Population change components

Population change is a result of the relationship between births, deaths and migration.

Definitions

• Immigrants: permanent residents moving to Canada from other countries and landing in Alberta.
• Emigrants: people permanently leaving Canada
• Non-permanent residents (net): in and out movements of foreign students, workers and refugee claimants, and the families of each of these categories
• Temporarily abroad (net): movements of people who do not have a residence in Canada, but intend to return
• Returning migrants: former emigrants who have returned to Canada to live

Data tables (Excel format): population change components

• Population estimates and components of growth (updated quarterly)
• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated October 7, 2020)
• Life expectancy in Alberta, at birth and age 65 (updated September 30, 2020)
• Fertility rates – Alberta and 19 Census Divisions (updated September 30, 2020)
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated September 29, 2020)

Demographic spotlight reports

Demographic profiles and information about the population, such as:

• migrants
• age cohorts
• fertility

PDF reports: demographic spotlights

• Interprovincial Employees in Alberta: industrial profile by major region of origin (March 28, 2017)
• A profile of interprovincial employees in Alberta – 2012 update (September 21, 2016)
• Demographic Trends in Alberta's Economic Regions (December 9, 2011)
• The visible minority population: recent trends in Alberta and Canada (August 31, 2011)
• Fertility in Alberta (June 10, 2011)
• Migration trends in census divisions: Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton (March 11, 2011)
• Mortality in Alberta (December 17, 2010)
• Census families in Alberta and Canada (July 28, 2010)
• International migration in Alberta (December 21, 2009)
• Interprovincial migration patterns in Alberta (September 26, 2009)
• Non-permanent residents in Alberta (May 21, 2009)

Demographic glossary of terms

We have a document listing relevant demographic terms.

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Jennifer Hansen, Manager, Demography and Social Statistics
Office of Statistics and Information
Phone: 780-427-8811
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Email: [email protected]

General OSI enquiries

Hours: 8:15 am to 4:30 pm (open Monday to Friday, closed statutory holidays)
Phone: 780-427-2071
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Fax: 780-426-3951
Email: [email protected]

Media enquiries

Contact the Treasury Board and Finance Spokesperson.

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